POTENTIAL AND RISKS OF THE RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS SECTOR

Abstract

The Russian oil and gas complex has been going through a difficult turbulent period since 2014 due to sanctions pressure: the economic pressure that increased in 2023 has a negative impact not only on the functioning of the industry, but also on the global economy in general and the Russian economy in particular. The current geopolitical challenges have led to the need to reshape the logistics chains of carbon supplies, restrictions on participation in Russian projects from both financial and technological positions by international companies, as well as attempts by some former importers of Russian hydrocarbons to supply from other countries. The article presents a SWOT analysis of modern factors affecting the current state of the oil and gas market and determining its development. Among the main stimulating factors, it is necessary to highlight the presence of new directions of energy supplies, as well as the possibility of reducing oil production from other resource-exporting countries. The most important stagnating factors are sanctions restrictions, a ban on the supply of technologies used in oil and gas production. Also, factors that have a diverse impact on the modern market, such as the possibility of attracting affordable financing from friendly countries, experience working with foreign companies in developing countries, play a significant role. As a result of the study, the authors identified the most promising trends under the influence of geopolitical factors on the transformation of the economy — a change in the vector of energy sales from west to east, as well as the expansion of domestic use of oil and gas, for example, gasification of the most remote areas of the country. It is proposed first of all to develop these areas, because such an approach will avoid dependence on Western importers of Russian energy resources both economically and politically, which, due to the current geopolitical situation, seems to be a strategic necessity for our country.