ANALYSIS OF CYCLICAL DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25806/uu4202220-28Статья поступила в редакцию: 30.03.2022
Статья принята к публикации: 08.04.2022
Статья опубликована: 21.04.2022
Keywords:
Gross regional product, Economic cycles, Regional development, Kitchin cycles, Juglar cycles.Abstract
The purpose of our paper is to test the hypothesis about the presence of cyclical development in the regional economy of the Bryansk region (Kitchin cycles, Juglar cycles). We conducted a spectral analysis of the gross regional product and the dynamics of the output of the branches of the regional economy, as well as a trend analysis of the branches of the region's economy, which have a statistically significant correlation with the gross regional product. We found that of all industries, only the hotel and restaurant business industry has the same trend change point as GRP in 2013. In this industry, there is another trend change point in 2015; the trend of the gross regional product in the named period does not have a change point. We believe that the results of the analysis do not confirm the initial hypothesis about the existence of Kitchin cycles and Juglar cycles in the economy of the Bryansk region in the observed period of time.
Информация о публикации
Финансирование: Исследование выполнено без привлечения внешнего финансирования, если иное не указано авторами.
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Правообладатель: Издательский дом «Академический».
Лицензия: Статья распространяется на условиях лицензии Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
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