DEMOGRAPHIC AGING OF RURAL TERRITORIES IN MODERN RUSSIA

Abstract

The article focuses on the issue of demographic aging in rural areas in Russia. Rural areas are an integral part of the economy, providing food security, creating jobs, and contributing to the sustainable development of the country's economy. The main cause of demographic aging is urbanization, as young people often leave rural areas in search of better educational and employment opportunities in cities. This is due to the lower wages in rural areas compared to urban areas. In addition, rural settlements have insufficient levels of development of the necessary social infrastructure, including transportation, communications, and medical and social and cultural facilities, which can also contribute to the outflow of working-age populations to cities.

The article presents data on the dynamics of the rural population and the distribution of the rural population by age group. It identifies the causal relationships between the factors that affect the demographic situation. Based on the constructed cognitive map, the article presents the results of impulse modeling, which are scenarios for the development of the situation using methods that increase the proportion of young people in the total rural population. The proposed adaptive scenario-based demographic forecasting aims to reduce the impact of demographic aging in rural areas.