ASSESSMENT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR IN THE FORMATION OF HUMAN POTENTIAL IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE REGION

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive assessment of the demographic factor determining the formation of human potential in the agricultural sector of the Kursk region. The study reveals a steady decline in the total population of the region, with a faster decrease in the rural population, which confirms a high level of urbanization. Some agricultural workers prefer to live in cities, indirectly indicating the insufficient quality of social and engineering infrastructure in rural areas. The analysis of natural reproduction shows a critical drop in the birth rate while mortality continues to exceed the birth rate several times over. Although the absolute number of deaths is declining, this is largely a consequence of the overall population decrease, and the gap between mortality and birth rate continues to widen. Chronic natural population decline remains a fundamental constraint on the reproduction of human potential. The study of migration processes reveals a sharp reduction in both arrivals and departures, indicating a decline in the attractiveness of rural areas. Intraregional migration dominates, reflecting the process of urbanization. Interregional migration consistently shows an outflow of population to other regions. International migration is insignificant and does not compensate for the losses. The main destabilizing factors in the formation of human capital have been the pandemic, sanctions pressure, and military actions on the western border of the region. The analysis of the age structure recorded an unacceptably low share of the population younger than working age, which predetermines a further contraction of labor potential. The share of the population older than working age remains above the optimal value. The systematized threats of human capital deficit include internal problems and external shocks, amplified by migration outflow and infrastructural deprivation – the inability of rural territories to provide high-quality education, healthcare, culture, and overall quality of life. The study concludes that all basic components of demographic dynamics show a steady deterioration. The formation of human potential in the agricultural sector is occurring in a mode of increasing contraction, which requires urgent measures to improve the quality of rural infrastructure, stimulate the birth rate, and retain the rural population.