TRANSFORMATIONAL CAPACITY OF INSTRUMENTS FOR LONG‑TERM SAVINGS OF CITIZENS: CONCEPTUALIZATION AND INSTITUTIONAL ASSESSMENT MODEL

Abstract

The article provides a theoretical and methodological framework for evaluating the mechanisms that channel household savings into long-term capital investments amid the structural transformation of the Russian economy. The author challenges the conventional calendar-based approach to defining long-term savings, which neglects contract-specific and legal constraints, such as the statutory right of individuals to withdraw deposits on demand under Article 837 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. To address this limitation, the concept of "institutional liquidity binding" is introduced. Building on this concept, the author proposes a novel multiplicative assessment model of the transformational capacity of financial instruments ( ). The model synthesizes three parameters: the contractual horizon of commitment, the financial cost of early termination, and the asset allocation investment coefficient. Empirical testing and scenario sensitivity analysis based on Bank of Russia data demonstrate that bank deposits and open-ended mutual funds exhibit zero transformational capacity ( ). Conversely, the Long-Term Savings Program (PDS) and third-generation Individual Investment Accounts (IIA-3) exhibit significant institutional advantage. The study identifies a structural imbalance in PDS: its high retention horizon is undermined by the conservative allocation of pension reserves into sovereign debt, highlighting the need for regulatory incentives to foster corporate capital formation.